Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

Low probability of Trump declaring war on Iran by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a 9.7% chance of Trump declaring war on Iran by March 31, 2026, indicating a strong consensus against this outcome. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 14.2%, suggesting some uncertainty but still favoring a 'no' outcome. With a confidence level of 65/100 and a time to expiry of 493 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'no' outcome.
• 2 The gap between market and AI probabilities indicates some uncertainty.
• 3 Historical context shows low likelihood of war declarations in similar scenarios.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting investor confidence.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 493 hours until the market expires.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."

General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.

Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.

The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.