Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

China's public EV charging capacity exceeds 350M kilowatts by 2027?

80.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

100 US troop killed in action with Iran by April 2026?

6.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia control 100% of donbass before 2027 ?

10.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China National Nuclear Corp announce commercial operation of the Linglong One reactor by April 1?

16.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

26.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $10K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?

57.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the 2026 Academy Award for Best Picture go to a film produced by any of Netflix, Amazon, or Apple?

7.9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Russian crewed aircraft shot down in NATO airspace by 2026-03-19?

1%

Avg YES

Manifold $16K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

China escalates to U.S.-specific ban on tungsten products by Mar 31, 2026?

13.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?

39%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Saudi Arabia to Enter Air Campaign in Iran with U.S. and Israel by 15th March?

10%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?

49%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the United States lose the war against Iran?

61%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palestinians out of hiding?

10%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses in any month of 2026?

61.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will there be a ceasefire announced between US/Israel and Iran between 11th and 15th March 2026?

1.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $14K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

45.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $122K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025?

0%

Avg YES

Polymarket $203K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?

37.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027

12.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran and the United States establish formal diplomatic relations before 2030?

29.9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Elon Musk end up in Russia this year?

14%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia and/or China get involved with the US/Israel and Iran situation?

21.9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will J.D. Vance publicly criticize the decision to attack Iran before 2029?

33.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $9K