Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

The market indicates a low probability of the US confirming alien existence before 2027.

With a market probability of 18.50% for a confirmation of alien existence, the consensus leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 21.5%, suggesting a marginally more optimistic view, but still aligns with the overall skepticism reflected in the market.

• 1 Current market sentiment is predominantly skeptical about alien existence.
• 2 The market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 3.
• 3 High confidence level of 95/100 indicates strong market stability.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant at 6885 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Historical trends show low rates of government confirmation on extraterrestrial matters.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.