|
GPT-6 released in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
74.36% |
69.36% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at e…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
97.16% |
92.12% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
63.93% |
58.56% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
85.51% |
80.51% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Judge Lin grant a preliminary injunction in Anthropic v. DoW?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
98.23% |
79.14% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
70.39% |
69.46% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 203…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
88.8% |
83.8% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
76.33% |
70.16% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
will tesla stock exceed $500 a share by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
61.6% |
57.81% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
76% |
75.19% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
90.52% |
85.52% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US cit…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
79.84% |
75.39% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
93% |
88% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
92.47% |
87.47% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
66.1% |
61.1% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
86.09% |
70% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
67.24% |
57.38% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
69.21% |
71.74% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee T…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
73.06% |
68.06% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
70.68% |
63.76% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
81.27% |
76.27% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
88.42% |
83.35% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
Will Apple release a foldable phone before 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
79.05% |
74.05% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|
|
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
88.01% |
78.26% |
-5 pts
|
50
|
YES
|