Events › Geopolitics › US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?…
Geopolitics 2 platforms 5 markets

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Combined AI YES
33.2%
Avg Confidence
72/100
Combined Volume
$4.5M
Platform Comparison
Polymarket
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?…
27.00%
29.00%
AI YES
+2
Edge pts
75
Confidence
$784K
Volume
Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?…
63.50%
58.50%
AI YES
-4
Edge pts
80
Confidence
$2.5M
Volume
Polymarket
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?…
5.50%
7.50%
AI YES
+2
Edge pts
75
Confidence
$857K
Volume
Polymarket
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?…
48.50%
42.50%
AI YES
-6
Edge pts
75
Confidence
$352K
Volume
Manifold
US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?…
21.58%
24.18%
AI YES
+5
Edge pts
55
Confidence
$40K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Polymarket
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?…
 27.00% 29.00% +2
75
$784K
Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?…
near 		63.50% 58.50% -4
80
$2.5M
Polymarket
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?…
near 		5.50% 7.50% +2
75
$857K
Polymarket
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?…
near 		48.50% 42.50% -6
75
$352K
Manifold
US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?…
near 		21.58% 24.18% +5
55
$40K
Odds by Platform
Polymarket
YES 27.00% NO 73.00%
Polymarket
YES 63.50% NO 36.50%
Polymarket
YES 5.50% NO 94.50%
Polymarket
YES 48.50% NO 51.50%
Manifold
YES 21.58% NO 78.42%
Spread: 58 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a ceasefire.
  • 2 The probability reflects ongoing diplomatic efforts.
  • 3 Historical trends show fluctuating probabilities in similar situations.
  • 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
  • 5 Time pressure is significant with less than 2000 hours until expiry.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Geopolitics
Platforms 2 platforms
Markets 5 markets
Markets on this Event
Polymarket 27.00%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?…
Polymarket 63.50%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?…
Polymarket 5.50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?…
Polymarket 48.50%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?…
Manifold 21.58%
US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?…
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