US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Market shows a 62.5% chance of a US-Iran ceasefire by June 30.

The prediction market indicates a 62.5% probability for a ceasefire between the US and Iran by June 30, with a slight edge towards a positive outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit slightly lower at 58.5%. Given the confidence level of 80/100, the market appears to be fairly priced with minimal expected volatility.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a ceasefire.
• 2 The probability reflects ongoing diplomatic efforts.
• 3 Historical trends show fluctuating probabilities in similar situations.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with less than 2000 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United Sta