Events › Business & Finance › US recession by end of 2026?…
Business & Finance 2 platforms 5 markets

US recession by end of 2026?

Combined AI YES
29.1%
Avg Confidence
58/100
Combined Volume
$699K
Platform Comparison
Polymarket
US recession by end of 2026?…
31.00%
32.50%
AI YES
+0.5
Edge pts
75
Confidence
$626K
Volume
Manifold
US recession in 2026?…
35.37%
32.83%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
55
Confidence
$49K
Volume
Manifold
United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?…
1.42%
4.58%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
55
Confidence
$21K
Volume
Manifold
US recession in 2026?…
35.00%
22.87%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
55
Confidence
$3K
Volume
Manifold
Nasdaq correction by end of June 2026…
48.00%
53.50%
AI YES
+5.5
Edge pts
50
Confidence
—
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Polymarket
US recession by end of 2026?…
 31.00% 32.50% +0.5
75
$626K
Manifold
US recession in 2026?…
near 		35.37% 32.83% +3.5
55
$49K
Manifold
United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?…
near 		1.42% 4.58% +3.5
55
$21K
Manifold
US recession in 2026?…
near 		35.00% 22.87% +3.5
55
$3K
Manifold
Nasdaq correction by end of June 2026…
near 		48.00% 53.50% +5.5
50
—
Odds by Platform
Polymarket
YES 31.00% NO 69.00%
Manifold
YES 35.37% NO 64.63%
Manifold
YES 1.42% NO 98.58%
Manifold
YES 35.00% NO 65.00%
Manifold
YES 48.00% NO 52.00%
Spread: 46.6 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment leans towards economic stability.
  • 2 Key factors include inflation rates and employment data.
  • 3 Historical base rates show a low frequency of recessions in this timeframe.
  • 4 Liquidity in the market appears adequate for trading.
  • 5 Time pressure is moderate with nearly 330 days until expiry.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Business & Finance
Platforms 2 platforms
Markets 5 markets
Markets on this Event
Polymarket 31.00%
US recession by end of 2026?…
Manifold 35.37%
US recession in 2026?…
Manifold 1.42%
United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?…
Manifold 35.00%
US recession in 2026?…
Manifold 48.00%
Nasdaq correction by end of June 2026…
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