Event Intelligence

🤖 AI & Tech 6 markets

Will "Prologue to Terrified Comments on Claude's Co..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

11.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 5 markets

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

38.4%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $779K

🤖 AI & Tech 5 markets

Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?

67.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $368K

🤖 AI & Tech 5 markets

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 16?

40%

Avg YES

Polymarket $95K

🤖 AI & Tech 5 markets

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

16.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $37K

🤖 AI & Tech 4 markets

Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?

2.7%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $1.8M

🤖 AI & Tech 4 markets

Will TikTok - Videos, Shop & LIVE be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?

16.9%

Avg YES

Polymarket $47K

🤖 AI & Tech 4 markets

Will NVIDIA stock be higher on March 16, 2026 than on March 09, 2026?

47.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $11K

🤖 AI & Tech 4 markets

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

15.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $137K

🤖 AI & Tech 4 markets

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027?

27%

Avg YES

Manifold $81K

🤖 AI & Tech 4 markets

Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?

10.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K

🤖 AI & Tech 4 markets

Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2027?

64.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $41K

🤖 AI & Tech 4 markets

Will Tim Cook cease to be CEO of Apple before the end of 2026?

34.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $8K

🤖 AI & Tech 4 markets

Will Tesla declare bankruptcy or be acquired by the end of 2027?

12.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $14K

🤖 AI & Tech 4 markets

Will Kanye release BULLY by March 20?

25%

Avg YES

Polymarket $1.4M

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

75%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $726K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?

11.9%

Avg YES

Polymarket $1.3M

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

11.1%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $371K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

29.7%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $311K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

29.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $119K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

85.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $2.4M

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

In exactly two years (Mar 2026), will two shares of Alphabet/Google GOOG be worth more than one share of Microsoft MSFT?

53.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $7K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will Amazon divest from Anthropic in 2026?

8.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $7K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will ChatGPT have ads before the end of 2026?

66.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $24K