Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Market shows a close split on whether Trump's win will keep US CO2 emissions below 4.5 billion tons by 2030.

The market indicates a slight lean towards the belief that if Trump wins, US CO2 emissions will exceed 4.5 billion tons by 2030, with a probability of 55.73% for 'NO'. The probabilities from both the market and Pulse AI are closely aligned, suggesting a consensus on the uncertainty surrounding future emissions policies.

• 1 Current market probability favors higher emissions post-Trump win.
• 2 The close probabilities indicate significant uncertainty in future emissions trends.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate, reflecting mixed sentiment among participants.
• 4 Potential policy changes could significantly impact emissions forecasts.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for evolving political and economic contexts.