Markets / Politics / Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a...
Manifold Politics Expires in 829 days OPEN

Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?

39.92%
Market YES
60.08%
Market NO
Trade on Manifold →
Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
40.36%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +1.5 pts

Market favors a Democrat win in 2028 if Trump wins in 2024.

The prediction market indicates a higher probability for a Democrat to win in 2028, with a 61.14% chance compared to 38.86% for a Republican. This contrasts with the AI's slightly more optimistic view for a Republican win at 40.36%. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 45 out of 100.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a Democrat victory in 2028.
  • 2 The probability gap suggests skepticism about Republican continuity.
  • 3 Historical trends may influence voter behavior in 2028.
  • 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting balanced betting activity.
  • 5 Time until expiry allows for significant political developments.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major political events impacting voter sentiment
Changes in Republican party leadership or direction
Trump's performance and public perception during his term
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $1,488
Liquidity $0
Resolves 16 Nov 2028
Status Open
Related Markets
Netanyahu out by March 31?...
0.15% NO polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?...
0.00% NO polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?...
0.00% NO polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?...
0.15% NO polymarket
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominat...
0.85% NO polymarket