Markets / Politics / If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will a War between China and t...
Manifold Politics Expires in 906 days OPEN

If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will a War between China and the USA have occured by the end of his 2025 term?

8.84%
Market YES
91.16%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
14.84%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
YES side may be undervalued Edge: +6 pts

Low probability for a US-China war if Trump wins in 2024.

The market indicates a strong belief that a war between the US and China will not occur during Trump's potential 2025 term, with a 91.16% probability for 'NO.' However, the AI model suggests a slightly higher likelihood of 14.84% for 'YES,' indicating a potential undervaluation of war risks in the current sentiment.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors peace over conflict.
  • 2 The AI model indicates a higher perceived risk of war than the market.
  • 3 The edge suggests potential mispricing in the 'YES' side.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate, indicating uncertainty in predictions.
  • 5 Time to expiry allows for significant geopolitical developments.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Escalation of US-China tensions or military incidents
Significant geopolitical events affecting US-China relations
Changes in Trump's foreign policy stance post-election
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $45,125
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Feb 2029
Status Open
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