If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)

Market leans towards the belief that the US may not remain a liberal democracy if Trump is elected.

The prediction market indicates a 60% probability that the US will not remain a liberal democracy if Trump is elected, with a slightly lower AI probability of 58.5%. This suggests a prevailing sentiment of skepticism regarding democratic stability under a potential Trump presidency.

• 1 Current market probability shows a majority skepticism about democracy under Trump.
• 2 The AI model aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating cautious outlook.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced with minimal distortion.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate, reflecting uncertainty in political forecasting.
• 5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential developments to influence opinions.