If Trump unambiguously causes a recession during his term, will it affect his popularity among the MAGAs?

Market suggests Trump's recession impact on MAGA popularity is unlikely.

The prediction market indicates a 60.72% probability that a recession caused by Trump will not affect his popularity among MAGA supporters. This sentiment is reinforced by a relatively low confidence level of 45/100, suggesting uncertainty in the market's assessment. The edge of 1.5 indicates that the market prices are fairly aligned with the AI's predictions.

• 1 Current market probability favors NO impact on popularity.
• 2 AI probability closely aligns with market, indicating consensus.
• 3 Low confidence suggests potential volatility in sentiment.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for shifts in public perception.
• 5 Market edge indicates fair pricing, reflecting balanced views.