Markets / Politics / If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for...
Manifold Politics Expires in 770 days OPEN

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

21.01%
Market YES
78.99%
Market NO
Trade on Manifold →
Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
24.18%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +1.5 pts

Market favors no third term run by Trump if elected in 2024.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination against Trump attempting a third term, with 77.32% probability for 'NO'. The AI model also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a consensus on the likelihood of Trump not pursuing a third term.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market probability shows a strong preference for 'NO'.
  • 2 AI probability closely mirrors market sentiment, indicating stability.
  • 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
  • 4 Confidence level of 45/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Trump's approval ratings significantly increase post-2024 election
Major political shifts or crises that alter Trump's ambitions
Public sentiment towards term limits or third terms evolves
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $184,015
Liquidity $0
Resolves 08 Nov 2028
Status Open
Related Markets
Netanyahu out by March 31?...
0.15% NO polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?...
0.00% NO polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?...
0.00% NO polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?...
0.15% NO polymarket
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominat...
0.85% NO polymarket