If Trump wins, will China attack Taiwan before the end of 2026?

Market suggests low likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan if Trump wins.

The market indicates a strong consensus against the possibility of China attacking Taiwan before the end of 2026, with a probability of 88% for 'NO'. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 18% for 'YES', indicating a potential undervaluation of the 'YES' side by 6 points.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a higher probability for 'YES' than the market.
• 3 The edge of 6 points suggests potential mispricing in the market.
• 4 Confidence level of 55 indicates moderate uncertainty among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for significant geopolitical developments.