Italy judicial reform: Will turnout at the March 2026 referendum exceed 50%?

Market suggests low turnout for Italy's March 2026 referendum at 30.45%.

The prediction market indicates a 30.45% probability that turnout will exceed 50% at the upcoming referendum, with a stronger consensus against it. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a general expectation of low voter engagement. The edge of 3.5 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment, reflecting uncertainty in the market.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards low turnout.
• 2 Recent political climate may affect voter engagement levels.
• 3 Historical turnout rates in similar referendums could inform expectations.
• 4 Liquidity in the market is currently limited, affecting confidence.
• 5 Time pressure is a factor, with only 124 hours until the referendum.