Markets / Politics / Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Tru...
Manifold Politics Expires in 1080 days OPEN

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

22.74%
Market YES
77.26%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
24.24%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +1.5 pts

Market favors a Trump win over Kim Jong Un's continued leadership by mid-2029.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that either Kim Jong Un will be out of power or Trump will win by mid-2029, with a NO probability of 77.26%. The AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a consensus on the likelihood of a Trump victory. The confidence level of 45/100 indicates moderate uncertainty among participants.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a Trump win.
  • 2 The probability gap suggests a strong expectation of political change.
  • 3 Historical trends show fluctuating confidence in political predictions.
  • 4 Liquidity appears stable, indicating active participation in the market.
  • 5 Time pressure is significant with nearly 3.3 years until judgment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Significant political developments in North Korea
Major shifts in U.S. political landscape or election outcomes
Changes in public opinion or approval ratings for key figures
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $9,098
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Jul 2029
Status Open
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