Markets / Politics / Trump attempts to overstay his 2 terms...
Manifold Politics Expires in 1286 days OPEN

Trump attempts to overstay his 2 terms

19.03%
Market YES
80.97%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
25.95%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +1.5 pts

Market suggests low likelihood of Trump overstaying his terms.

The prediction market indicates a 24.45% chance of Trump attempting to overstay his two terms, with a stronger consensus on a NO outcome at 75.55%. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge towards the NO outcome.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome.
  • 2 The probability gap indicates a strong consensus against overstaying.
  • 3 Historical trends show limited precedent for term overstays.
  • 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting investor confidence.
  • 5 Time to expiry remains extensive, allowing for potential shifts.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major political developments affecting Trump's influence
Changes in public opinion or legal challenges
Emergence of significant opposition movements
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $2,163
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Jan 2030
Status Open
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