What wins in the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum?

The NO vote is currently favored in the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong preference for the NO vote at 61.93%, compared to 38.07% for YES. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly more favorable outlook for YES at 41.57%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 50 out of 100, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Market shows a clear preference for NO at 61.93%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher chance for YES at 41.57%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, reflecting uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 164 hours, increasing urgency.
• 5 Edge of 3.5 suggests insufficient data for a confident assessment.