Markets / Politics / Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026?...
Manifold Politics Expires in 215 days OPEN

Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026?

4.54%
Market YES
95.46%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
13.79%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
YES side may be undervalued Edge: +6 pts

Impeachment probability for Trump in 2026 is low, with a market consensus against it.

The current market probability for Trump's impeachment by the House in 2026 stands at 7.79%, indicating a strong consensus that it will not occur. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 13.79%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the YES side by 6 points. Overall confidence in these predictions is moderate at 55 out of 100.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for impeachment.
  • 2 Market shows a significant gap between YES and NO probabilities.
  • 3 Historical trends indicate low rates of impeachment for presidents.
  • 4 Liquidity in the market may affect the accuracy of predictions.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Significant political scandal involving Trump
Shift in House majority to a party favoring impeachment
Major changes in public opinion or voter sentiment
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $55,253
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Jan 2027
Status Open
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