Markets / Politics / Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?...
Manifold Politics Expires in 770 days OPEN

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

60.36%
Market YES
39.64%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
TOO CLOSE
Verdict
53.36%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
NO side may be undervalued Edge: -7 pts

Market shows a slight edge for Democrats in 2028 presidential election predictions.

The prediction market indicates a 60.36% probability for a Democrat winning the 2028 US presidential election, while the AI model suggests a narrower margin of 53.36%. With a confidence level of 45/100 and a 'TOO_CLOSE' verdict, the market reflects uncertainty and potential undervaluation of the NO side by 7 points.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current sentiment leans towards a Democratic victory.
  • 2 Market probability indicates a competitive landscape.
  • 3 The NO side may be undervalued based on AI analysis.
  • 4 Confidence level suggests uncertainty in predictions.
  • 5 Time until expiry allows for potential shifts in dynamics.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major party candidate announcements
Significant shifts in public opinion polls
Key legislative or political events impacting voter sentiment
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $2,267
Liquidity $0
Resolves 07 Nov 2028
Status Open
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