Markets / Politics / Will any Republican Vote to Impeach Trump in 2026?...
Manifold Politics Expires in 95 days OPEN

Will any Republican Vote to Impeach Trump in 2026?

20.21%
Market YES
79.79%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
22.61%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
YES side may be undervalued Edge: +6 pts

The market shows a low probability of any Republican voting to impeach Trump in 2026.

Currently, the market indicates an 83.39% likelihood that no Republican will vote to impeach Trump in 2026, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 22.61% for a YES outcome. The edge of 6 points for the YES side indicates that this outcome may be undervalued, but overall confidence remains moderate at 55 out of 100.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards NO.
  • 2 The YES side appears undervalued by 6 points.
  • 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55 out of 100.
  • 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 7033 hours.
  • 5 Potential shifts in party dynamics could influence outcomes.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Emergence of significant legal challenges against Trump
Changes in Republican party leadership or ideology
Major political events influencing party dynamics
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $8,909
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Status Open
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