Will at least two Trump cabinet members leave office between Jan 20 and June 30, 2026?

Market shows a slight lean towards at least two Trump cabinet members leaving by mid-2026.

The market probability indicates a narrow edge for the possibility of two Trump cabinet members departing between January and June 2026. With a confidence level of 50/100 and an edge of -6.5, the data suggests uncertainty among participants regarding this outcome.

• 1 Current market probability favors YES at 52.62%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability suggests a slight NO preference at 53.88%.
• 3 The edge of -6.5 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, reflecting uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2578 hours, allowing for potential developments.