Markets / Politics / Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end o...
Manifold Politics Expires in 141 days OPEN

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

50%
Market YES
50%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
TOO CLOSE
Verdict
49.56%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +1.5 pts

Netanyahu's chances of remaining Prime Minister are nearly evenly split.

The prediction market shows a close contest regarding Benjamin Netanyahu's position as Prime Minister by the end of 2026, with a slight edge towards him not remaining in office. The probabilities from both the market and Pulse AI suggest uncertainty, indicating a competitive political landscape ahead.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' slightly at 51.94%.
  • 2 Pulse AI's probability is closely aligned, indicating market efficiency.
  • 3 Confidence level of 55/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
  • 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political shifts.
  • 5 Market edge of 1.5 indicates fair pricing with minimal arbitrage opportunity.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major political developments or scandals involving Netanyahu
Changes in public opinion or approval ratings
Shifts in coalition dynamics or party support
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $4,088
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Status Open
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