Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?

There's a 75% chance Luxon will still be PM by the next election.

The market indicates a strong belief that Christopher Luxon will remain Prime Minister of New Zealand through the 2026 general election, with a 75% probability favoring 'YES'. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower confidence at 68%, indicating potential undervaluation of the 'NO' side by 7 points.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Luxon remaining PM.
• 2 The 'NO' side is perceived as undervalued by 7 points.
• 3 Pulse AI shows a slightly lower confidence than the market.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.
• 5 Confidence level is moderate at 55 out of 100.