Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?

The market shows a 64% chance of Trump being impeached in his second term.

Current market sentiment indicates a strong belief in the possibility of impeachment, with a 64% probability assigned to the YES side. However, the AI probability suggests a slightly lower likelihood at 57%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side. The confidence level is moderate at 45 out of 100, reflecting uncertainty in the political landscape.

• 1 Current market probability favors impeachment at 64%.
• 2 AI model predicts a lower likelihood at 57%.
• 3 NO side is undervalued by 7 points, suggesting potential for adjustment.
• 4 Confidence in the market is moderate at 45 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.