Markets / Politics / Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31...
Manifold Politics Expires in 96 days OPEN

Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31/2026?

92.45%
Market YES
7.55%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
YES
Verdict
83.61%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
NO side may be undervalued Edge: -7 pts

Market strongly favors Trump being president on 12/31/2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of 90.61% for Donald Trump to be president by the end of 2026, with a corresponding Pulse AI probability of 83.61%. However, the NO side appears undervalued by 7 points, suggesting potential market overconfidence in the YES outcome.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current sentiment heavily favors Trump's presidency in 2026.
  • 2 Market shows a significant gap between YES and NO probabilities.
  • 3 The NO side's undervaluation indicates possible market overconfidence.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, suggesting uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in dynamics.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major political developments affecting Trump's candidacy
Changes in public opinion or polling data
Legal challenges impacting Trump's eligibility
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $2,666
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Status Open
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