Markets / Politics / Will Donald Trump die of assassination?...
Manifold Politics Expires in 5208 days OPEN

Will Donald Trump die of assassination?

13.91%
Market YES
86.09%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
19.91%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
YES side may be undervalued Edge: +6 pts

Market indicates low probability of Trump's assassination.

The prediction market shows a 13.91% chance of Donald Trump dying from assassination, with a stronger consensus against it at 86.09%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 19.91%, indicating potential undervaluation of the YES side by 6 points.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards NO.
  • 2 The YES side shows a potential undervaluation of 6 points.
  • 3 Pulse AI probability indicates a higher risk perception than market odds.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate at 45 out of 100.
  • 5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Increased threats or incidents involving Trump
Political unrest or significant changes in his security detail
High-profile events or rallies that elevate risk perception
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $9,369
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2040
Status Open
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