Markets / Politics / Will Donald Trump resign as US President during his second t...
Manifold Politics Expires in 942 days OPEN

Will Donald Trump resign as US President during his second term?

3.92%
Market YES
96.08%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
9.51%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
YES side may be undervalued Edge: +6 pts

Market shows low probability of Trump resigning during his second term.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Donald Trump will not resign, with a 96.49% probability for 'NO'. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of resignation at 9.51%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the 'YES' side by 6 points.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Trump remaining in office.
  • 2 The probability gap suggests potential market inefficiency.
  • 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
  • 4 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential developments.
  • 5 Liquidity context may affect the responsiveness of market adjustments.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major political scandal involving Trump
Significant health issues affecting Trump
Unexpected shifts in public opinion or party support
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $16,489
Liquidity $0
Resolves 22 Jan 2029
Status Open
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