Markets / Politics / Will Donald Trump win the 2028 presidential election and be ...
Manifold Politics Expires in 143 days OPEN

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 presidential election and be sworn in for a third term?

2.65%
Market YES
97.35%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
8.65%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
YES side may be undervalued Edge: +6 pts

Market shows low probability for Trump winning the 2028 election.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Donald Trump will not win the 2028 presidential election, with a 97.35% probability against. Despite a slight edge suggesting the YES side may be undervalued, the overall confidence remains moderate at 55/100, reflecting uncertainty in the long-term political landscape.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market probability heavily favors NO at 97.35%.
  • 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 8.65%.
  • 3 The edge of 6 points indicates potential undervaluation of the YES side.
  • 4 Confidence level of 55/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6716 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major shifts in public opinion or approval ratings for Trump
Significant changes in the Republican primary landscape
Unexpected political events or scandals impacting Trump's candidacy
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $17,511
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Jan 2027
Status Open
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