Will Jair Bolsonaro run for the Senate in 2026?

4.17%

Market YES

95.83%

Market NO

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Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

10.17%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

YES side may be undervalued Edge: +6 pts

Market shows low probability for Bolsonaro running for Senate in 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Jair Bolsonaro running for the Senate in 2026, with a 95.83% probability of 'NO.' However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for a potential run at 10.17%, indicating some market undervaluation of the 'YES' side.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 95.83%.
2 Pulse AI indicates a higher likelihood of 10.17% for 'YES'.
3 The edge of 6 points suggests potential undervaluation of 'YES'.
4 Confidence level is moderate at 55 out of 100.
5 Time to expiry is extensive at 4080 hours, allowing for potential developments.