Markets / Politics / Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Presidential Election of the Un...
Manifold Politics Expires in 896 days OPEN

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Presidential Election of the United States?

21.34%
Market YES
78.66%
Market NO
Trade on Manifold →
Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
23.72%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +1.5 pts

J.D. Vance has a low probability of winning the 2028 Presidential Election.

Current market probabilities indicate a 22.22% chance of J.D. Vance winning the 2028 Presidential Election, with a stronger consensus against his candidacy. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 23.72%, suggesting limited confidence in his chances. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 45 out of 100.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market probability shows skepticism about Vance's candidacy.
  • 2 Pulse verdict aligns with market sentiment against Vance.
  • 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
  • 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.
  • 5 Current probabilities suggest limited enthusiasm for Vance's campaign.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major endorsements or support from influential political figures
Significant shifts in public opinion or polling data
Unexpected developments in the political landscape or election dynamics
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $7,494
Liquidity $0
Resolves 23 Jan 2029
Status Open
Related Markets
Netanyahu out by March 31?...
0.15% NO polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?...
0.00% NO polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?...
0.00% NO polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?...
0.15% NO polymarket
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominat...
0.85% NO polymarket