Markets / Politics / Will Joe Biden die before Donald Trump?...
Manifold Politics Expires in 4938 days OPEN

Will Joe Biden die before Donald Trump?

68.85%
Market YES
31.15%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
YES
Verdict
61.95%
AI YES
50
Confidence
45
Reliability
NO side may be undervalued Edge: -7 pts

Market favors Biden's death before Trump's with a 68.95% probability.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Joe Biden will die before Donald Trump, with a probability of 68.95%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a lower probability of 61.95%, suggesting some divergence in sentiment. The NO side appears undervalued, indicating potential market inefficiencies.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Biden's earlier death.
  • 2 The NO side shows a significant undervaluation of 7 points.
  • 3 Confidence level is moderate at 50 out of 100.
  • 4 Time to expiry is extensive at over 120,000 hours.
  • 5 Market dynamics may shift with new health information.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Health updates on Biden or Trump
Major political events affecting public perception
Changes in life expectancy statistics or health trends
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $47,665
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Jan 2040
Status Open
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