Markets / Politics / Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump?...
Manifold Politics Expires in 1204 days OPEN

Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump?

41.17%
Market YES
58.83%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
40.53%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +1.5 pts

The market favors Trump living longer than Biden, with a 60.97% probability.

The current market probability indicates a stronger belief that Trump will outlive Biden, with a 60.97% chance compared to Biden's 39.03%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a slight discrepancy in probabilities but overall agreement on the outcome. The confidence level is moderate, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market shows a clear preference for Trump living longer than Biden.
  • 2 Pulse AI probability closely aligns with market data, indicating consistency.
  • 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
  • 4 Confidence level at 45/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Health updates or medical reports on Biden or Trump
Changes in public perception or media narratives
Significant life events impacting either individual
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $94,270
Liquidity $0
Resolves 16 Jan 2030
Status Open
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