Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?

Netanyahu is favored to remain prime minister by October 7, 2026, with a 79.71% probability.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood of Netanyahu remaining in office, with a probability of 79.71%. However, the AI model suggests a slightly lower probability of 72.71%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the NO side by 7 points. This discrepancy may reflect uncertainties in political dynamics leading up to the expiry date.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Netanyahu's continued leadership.
• 2 The gap between market and AI probabilities suggests potential market inefficiencies.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55, indicating some uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 4922 hours, allowing for significant political developments.
• 5 The NO side appears undervalued, which could attract interest from risk-averse investors.