Will Nicolás Maduro still be president on the March equinox in 2026?

Market indicates low probability of Maduro remaining president by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Nicolás Maduro remaining in power, with a 97.52% probability of a NO outcome. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 8.48% for a YES outcome, indicating potential undervaluation of the YES side by 6 points. This discrepancy may reflect differing assessments of political stability and future developments in Venezuela.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Maduro not remaining in power.
• 2 The YES side is considered undervalued by 6 points based on Pulse AI analysis.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 207 hours, adding urgency to market movements.
• 5 Historical trends in Venezuelan politics may influence future predictions.