Will Orbán Viktor's party win a supermajority of seats in the 2026 parliamentary election?

The market indicates a low chance of Orbán's party winning a supermajority in 2026.

Current market probabilities show a strong consensus against Orbán Viktor's party achieving a supermajority in the upcoming parliamentary election, with a NO probability of 96.58%. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 9.42%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the YES side by 6 points. The confidence level is moderate at 55 out of 100, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO at 96.58%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a higher YES probability at 9.42%, indicating potential undervaluation.
• 3 The edge of 6 points suggests a discrepancy between market and AI predictions.
• 4 Confidence level of 55/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 628 hours, allowing for potential shifts in political dynamics.