Will Pierre Pollievre be leader of the Conservatives on the date of the next election?

Pollievre is favored to remain Conservative leader by the next election.

The market indicates a strong probability of Pierre Pollievre continuing as the leader of the Conservatives, with a 70.63% chance of a YES outcome. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly lower confidence at 61.63%, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction. The edge score of -9 reflects insufficient data for a more definitive assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Pollievre's leadership.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability indicates moderate uncertainty.
• 3 The edge score suggests limited data for a confident prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential changes.
• 5 Market dynamics may shift with upcoming political developments.