Will the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?

Market suggests low probability for Democrats to gain 38+ House seats in 2026.

The current market indicates a strong belief that Democrats will not gain 38 or more seats in the 2026 midterms, with a 80.12% probability for 'NO.' However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for the 'YES' outcome at 25.88%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the Democrats' prospects.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a higher likelihood for 'YES' than the market suggests.
• 3 The edge of 6 points implies potential undervaluation of the 'YES' side.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, reflecting uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.