Markets / Politics / Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California gubernatorial electi...
Manifold Politics Expires in 36 days OPEN

Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

11.87%
Market YES
88.13%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
19.87%
AI YES
50
Confidence
35
Reliability
Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +8 pts

Tom Steyer has a low probability of winning the 2026 California gubernatorial election.

The market indicates a strong likelihood against Tom Steyer winning, with a probability of 88.13% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance at 19.87% for 'YES', but overall confidence remains moderate at 50/100 due to insufficient data.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
  • 2 Steyer's historical performance and recognition may influence perceptions.
  • 3 The market shows low liquidity, indicating limited trading activity.
  • 4 Time until the election is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.
  • 5 Confidence levels suggest uncertainty in the predictions.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Significant changes in public opinion or polling data
Emergence of major endorsements or campaign developments
Unexpected events impacting the political landscape in California
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $507
Liquidity $0
Resolves 03 Nov 2026
Status Open
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