Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act by April 30, 2026?

Market indicates low probability of Trump invoking the Insurrection Act by April 2026.

The current market probability shows a strong leaning towards 'NO' at 84.91%, suggesting that participants do not expect Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act by the specified date. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher for 'YES' at 23.09%, indicating some uncertainty in the market. However, the edge of 8 and a confidence level of 55/100 suggest that there is insufficient data for a confident assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 84.91%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 23.09%.
• 3 Market edge of 8 indicates uncertainty and insufficient data for strong predictions.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, reflecting mixed opinions among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 1065 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.