Markets / Politics / Will Trump issue a pardon / commutation for a group of peopl...
Manifold Politics Expires in 890 days OPEN

Will Trump issue a pardon / commutation for a group of people (not by name) during his term?

91.41%
Market YES
8.59%
Market NO
Trade on Manifold →
Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
YES
Verdict
84.41%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
NO side may be undervalued Edge: -7 pts

High probability indicates strong market belief Trump will issue a pardon during his term.

The market shows a significant probability of 91.41% for Trump issuing a pardon or commutation. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 84.41%, suggesting a strong consensus among participants. However, the NO side appears undervalued, indicating potential for shifts in sentiment.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a YES outcome.
  • 2 The NO side is perceived as undervalued by 7 points.
  • 3 Confidence level is moderate at 45 out of 100.
  • 4 Time to expiry is extensive at nearly 25000 hours.
  • 5 Historical trends may influence future pardon decisions.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
New legal developments affecting Trump's decision-making
Public opinion shifts regarding pardons
Emergence of high-profile cases that may prompt a pardon
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $2,959
Liquidity $0
Resolves 20 Jan 2029
Status Open
Related Markets
Netanyahu out by March 31?...
0.15% NO polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?...
0.00% NO polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?...
0.00% NO polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?...
0.15% NO polymarket
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominat...
0.85% NO polymarket