Will Trump Pardon SBF by the end of January 2029?

The market shows a low probability of Trump pardoning SBF by January 2029.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that Trump will not pardon SBF, with a NO probability of 85.06%. However, the AI model suggests a slightly higher chance of 20.94% for a YES outcome, indicating potential undervaluation of the YES side. The confidence level is moderate at 50, reflecting uncertainty in the prediction.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The YES side is perceived as undervalued by 6 points.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate, indicating uncertainty.
• 4 Time until expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Political dynamics could shift the probabilities as events unfold.