Will voter turnout at the March 22-23, 2026 constitutional referendum exceed 45% of eligible voters and vote 'yes' win?

Voter turnout at the referendum is unlikely to exceed 45%, with a strong NO sentiment.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of NO at 71.44%, suggesting skepticism about turnout exceeding 45%. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, reinforcing the expectation that a YES outcome is unlikely. With only 26 hours until expiry, the market appears to be fairly priced with a slight edge.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards NO.
• 2 The probability of YES is slightly higher in AI analysis.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100.
• 4 Time pressure is a factor with only 26 hours remaining.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 1.5.