2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

The market favors a Democratic House and Republican Senate in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 61% likelihood of a Democratic House and a 39% chance of a Republican Senate. The Pulse AI analysis slightly aligns with this, suggesting a 62.5% probability for the NO outcome. The edge of -1.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current sentiment.

• 1 Current sentiment leans towards a divided Congress in 2026.
• 2 Historical trends show fluctuating control between parties in midterm elections.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.
• 4 Time until expiry allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.
• 5 Confidence level of 75 indicates moderate certainty in current predictions.

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

If control of