2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 90% by March 31?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for Republican odds over 90% by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a significant belief that Republicans will not achieve over 90% odds by March 31, with a 'NO' probability of 98.7%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of this outcome. With a confidence level of 65/100, the market appears to be fairly priced given the current context.

• 1 Market shows a strong preference for 'NO' at 98.7%.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment at 95.2% for 'NO'.
• 3 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, with only 23 hours remaining.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-90-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.