Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?

The market indicates a low probability of a US strike on Venezuela by year-end.

With a market probability of 17.5% for a US strike on Venezuela by December 31, the consensus leans heavily towards 'NO' at 82.5%. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a stable outlook with minimal expected changes in the near term.

• 1 Current market sentiment is predominantly against a strike.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a well-balanced market with minimal bias.
• 3 Historical context shows low frequency of direct US military action in Venezuela.
• 4 Market confidence is moderate at 65 out of 100.
• 5 Uncertainty around the time to expiry may affect future probability adjustments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolu