Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?

Market indicates no expectation of a US strike on Venezuela by January 10.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of a US strike on Venezuela, with a 100% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 1.5% for a strike occurring, suggesting that current sentiment and analysis do not foresee military action in the near term.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against a US strike.
• 2 Historical context shows low frequency of US military action in Venezuela.
• 3 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current predictions.
• 4 The time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.
• 5 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced based on available data.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolu