Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?

The market strongly predicts no US strike on Venezuela by January 31.

Current market sentiment indicates a 100% probability of no US strike on Venezuela by the end of January. The Pulse AI also supports this view, showing a low probability of 1.5% for a strike occurring, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a high confidence level.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against a strike.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level of 80 indicates strong belief in current predictions.
• 4 Low likelihood of change suggests stability in geopolitical context.
• 5 No imminent time pressure as expiry date is unknown.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolu