Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?

Market indicates a low probability of a US strike on Venezuela by March 31.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of a US strike on Venezuela, with a 98.75% probability for 'NO.' The market appears to be fairly priced, as indicated by the edge of 0, and the confidence level of 65 suggests moderate certainty in this assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors no military action.
• 2 Key factors influencing the market include diplomatic relations and regional stability.
• 3 Historical context shows low frequency of US strikes in Venezuela.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable with minimal fluctuations.
• 5 Time pressure is unclear, as the expiry date is not specified.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolu